Galaxy Research told clients on Monday that Bitcoin's bear market ended in June, arguing that now is an attractive time to buy and hold. Alex Thorn, the firm's head of firmwide research, wrote: "We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left."
Bitcoin traded above $80,000 early Monday before slipping to about $79,513, down 0.90% on the day. The largest cryptocurrency remains roughly 36% below its October 2025 record of around $126,000, but has rebounded sharply from its June 30 low.
The technical argument centers on Bitcoin's move back above its 50-week moving average. The asset closed above that level for five straight weeks through Oct. 18, after 44 consecutive weeks below it. During the decline to the June low, Bitcoin also tested its 200-week moving average, with the worst weekly close coming 4.7% below that level. Galaxy set an invalidation trigger: a weekly close below the 50-week moving average of $76,540, without recovery within a month, would challenge the call.
Galaxy also highlighted easing supply pressure from older wallets. Bitcoin held in wallets untouched for at least five years moved at an average rate of 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, down from 47,000 BTC in 2025 and 67,000 BTC in 2024. Since October 2024, about 1.11 million BTC in that age category has moved, with exchange-traded funds and public treasury companies absorbing much of the supply. Thorn tied the bullish case to macro conditions, noting that U.S. federal debt at $40.44 trillion and AI-related borrowing strengthen bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against currency debasement.
Not all signals aligned with the call. Strategy said Monday it had paused Bitcoin purchases and repurchased $205 million of STRC preferred shares, while Strive moved the other way with a $511 million purchase. U.S. spot Bitcoin funds lost $635.49 million on Oct. 22 and $137.94 million on Oct. 23, after taking in $528.40 million on Oct. 21. Cumulative net inflows stand at $57.18 billion, and total net assets are $104.43 billion, or 6.38% of Bitcoin's market value. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sat at 51, in neutral territory rather than the extreme fear often seen at capitulation.
On risks, Galaxy said recent AI-assisted thefts targeted exchanges, vendors, devices or users rather than Bitcoin's underlying protocol, and AI does not weaken Bitcoin's SHA-256 hash function or signature scheme. The firm also argued that no computer capable of breaking Bitcoin's cryptography currently exists, while noting ongoing work on quantum-resistant upgrades.
