Bitcoin has fallen below the $80,000 threshold ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 28 interest rate decision, compounding a weekly correction of approximately 9.3%. According to Bitfinex, the drop pushed BTC to test $79,250, marking its steepest decline since July and leaving the previous $81,300 support level to act as resistance.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $773.5 million in outflows across two sessions, while open interest in derivatives markets remained around 669,253 BTC. Bitfinex identifies a key structural support zone between $77,000 and $77,765, tied to large investors' average acquisition cost and the True Market Mean indicator. A sustained recovery above $82,500, where short positions vulnerable to liquidation are clustered, could signal an end to the consolidation phase, but analysts say that would likely require renewed ETF demand.
Markets now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged this week, with the probability of an October hike falling from 64.2% to 9.4% and the odds of a December increase rising to 72%. Bitfinex also noted tighter credit conditions in AI-related financing and a 17.9% three-week drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Upcoming earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel may influence Bitcoin through its correlation with major equity indices, while the 10-year Treasury real yield fell from 2.91% to 2.66%.
