Solana held above the psychologically important $100 level on Monday, but the token's near-term recovery remains constrained by persistent exchange-traded fund outflows and cooling derivatives activity. SOL was trading around $101.45 after three consecutive weekly losses, including a 2% decline last week.
According to SoSoValue data, Solana-focused ETFs recorded $17.30 million in net outflows last week, marking the third straight week of redemptions. That pushed the monthly outflow total to $72.24 million, reflecting sustained selling pressure through investment products tied to SOL.
Derivatives data from CoinGlass showed open interest in SOL futures at $6.27 billion on Monday, down from $6.34 billion a week earlier. The roughly 2% decline in the dollar value of outstanding contracts points to reduced leveraged exposure, though lower spot prices can also influence the metric.
The cautious tone persists despite Solana's recent Alpenglow upgrade, which replaced the TowerBFT consensus engine with Votor. The update aims to cut transaction finality from about 12 seconds to 150 milliseconds, but it has not yet translated into a sustained price recovery.
Technically, SOL remains below its 50-day exponential moving average near $105.99 while holding above the 200-day EMA around $98.27. The $100 threshold is the immediate reference point, and a confirmed break below the 200-day average could expose the rising support trendline near $86.67. Momentum indicators remain cautious: the daily Relative Strength Index is at 36.83, and the MACD line is slightly below its signal line in negative territory.
For buyers to regain control, SOL would need to reclaim the 50-day EMA near $107.33. Above that, the September 25 high at $122.94 marks the next major resistance. Until momentum improves, defending the $100 area and the nearby 200-day EMA remains central to Solana's outlook.
