Bitwise has updated its long-term capital market assumptions, lifting its 2036 Bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million and projecting a compound annual return of 34.3% over the next decade.
The revised outlook is based on larger expected addressable markets rather than a higher assumed market share. Bitwise now estimates the global store-of-value market will reach $110 trillion by 2036, up from $91 trillion, while institutional investment assets are expected to grow to $303 trillion, up from $216 trillion.
To reach the base-case target, Bitwise assumes Bitcoin captures 25% of the store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets. The report also highlights institutional demand scenarios: with roughly $147 trillion in institutional assets under management, a 1% to 5% allocation to Bitcoin could create $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in demand.
Bitwise outlines three possible outcomes depending on Bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market. A bearish scenario with a 2.5% share would put Bitcoin at $130,686, while a bullish scenario with a 50% share would lift the price to $3.67 million.
Supply dynamics remain part of the model: about 20.1 million BTC are in circulation, representing 95.7% of the 21 million maximum supply, with annual issuance of roughly $14 billion.
The firm also lowered its forecast for Bitcoin’s average volatility over the next decade from 32.9% to 27.8%, citing expectations of greater institutional participation. Bitwise noted that Bitcoin fell nearly 53% from its October 2025 high of $126,000, while previous cycle corrections reached 86%, 84%, and 77% after the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks.
Bitwise says this expected return is substantially higher than average projections for U.S. equities at 6.7% and private equity at 10.8%, citing estimates from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock, and Vanguard.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, said institutions continued increasing exposure during the correction, although ETF purchases slowed and much of the demand for store-of-value assets flowed into gold.
