Nebius Group (NBIS) enters Thursday’s third-quarter earnings report deep in a bear market, trading near $141 — about 54% below its $300 all-time high. The results, due before the market opens on Nov. 12, are expected to show explosive revenue growth, with analysts forecasting $907 million in Q3 revenue, a 520% year-over-year jump, and the most optimistic estimate at $942 million. Wall Street also expects strong annual guidance of about $3.35 billion for this year, up 531%, rising to more than $12.2 billion next year.
Despite the top-line momentum, investor focus is on Nebius’s relationship with Microsoft, a key client alongside Meta Platforms. Reports indicate Microsoft is rethinking its use of neocloud providers because of elevated costs and project delays, and may not renew current agreements. That uncertainty is a major overhang, especially with Nebius trading around 62 times sales.
Broader AI sector concerns are also weighing on the stock. Anthropic is reportedly eyeing an IPO at a $1.3 trillion valuation, below the $2 trillion some analysts expected, while OpenAI recently raised $11 billion at a $1.25 trillion valuation, short of the $1.4 trillion consensus. Gartner has warned neocloud companies could book large impairments in coming years, citing the gap between expected revenue and costs. Competition is intensifying as nearly every Bitcoin mining company pivots to AI, and Lambda, Nscale, and Firmus have announced large deals. Nebius is also facing rising server, GPU, and memory prices, continued shareholder dilution after raising more than $2 billion in Q2 and expecting similar in Q3, with shares outstanding climbing to over 238 million from 218 million a year ago.
Technical and options signals lean bearish. The stock remains below the 50% Fibonacci retracement, the 50-day EMA, and the Ichimoku cloud, while retesting support around $145.40. The Nov. 13 options put-to-call ratio stands at 1.15x, with a low price mark of $113 implying nearly 15% downside. Short interest is 20%, and the RSI is in the late 30s. Still, Wall Street consensus remains a “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target near $285, suggesting potential for a rebound if guidance and Microsoft commentary reassure investors.
