For the first time in the current market cycle, the amount of Bitcoin held at an unrealized loss has exceeded the amount in profit, according to on-chain data from Glassnode. As of June 4, with Bitcoin trading around $61,300, over 10.5 million BTC—more than half of the total circulating supply of roughly 20 million coins—are in a loss position based on their on-chain acquisition price.
This shift, where coins at a loss outnumber those in profit, has historically occurred only during bear markets and has often preceded or coincided with market bottoms. The last such instances were seen during the prolonged bear markets of 2015 (lasting about one year), 2019 (six months), the March 2020 COVID-19 crash (one month), and the 2022 downturn (six months). This variability makes it difficult to predict how long the current period of elevated loss will persist.
The analysis also highlights that Bitcoin’s price has reached its 200-week moving average, a level near $61,300 that has historically acted as a strong support floor in past bear markets. If the price breaks below $60,000, the next major support zone is estimated near the realized price of approximately $54,000—the average on-chain acquisition cost of all coins. A sustained break below that level could signal deeper downside risk, though historical patterns suggest such levels often attract buying interest from long-term holders.
While the on-chain loss metric is a well-known bottom signal, it is not a timing tool. The length of time the market remains in this state has varied widely, and investors should consider this data as one piece of a broader on-chain and macroeconomic puzzle. The current environment suggests a market in transition, where short-term pain for holders may set the stage for longer-term accumulation.
