HYPE slipped to $67.8 on Coinbase, down 1.78% on the day, after former President Trump told reporters at the NATO summit in Ankara that he “thinks” the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with Iran is “over,” according to Al Jazeera. The wording stopped short of a formal withdrawal—Trump described only his personal read—but markets interpreted the comment as a bearish signal, igniting a risk-off move in the token.
The daily chart retains a broadly constructive structure despite the pullback. Price remains above every major moving average: the 50 SMA at $64.42, the 100 SMA, and the 200 SMA. It also sits above a rising trendline drawn from the May low of $38. The $66–$72 zone has been tested repeatedly since early July without breaking, and the current $67.89 print still holds within that range. Daily RSI at 53.28 sits mid-range, offering no immediate directional conviction, making the coming trendline test the decisive event.
The bearish scenario requires a specific sequence, not the pullback alone. First, a daily close below the rising trendline. Second, a daily close below the 50 SMA at $64.42, which reinforces the trendline. Confirmation would come if a subsequent retest of either level from below sees it reject as resistance, turning previous support into a ceiling. Historical failed-support-turned-resistance sequences on daily charts point toward the next horizontal references: near $58 and, beneath that, the $52 shelf.
Several factors could invalidate the bear case. Trump’s comment was a verbal statement, not a signed withdrawal or official briefing; his Iran rhetoric has often swung dramatically within a single news cycle. A shift in tone before the July 9 daily close would remove the risk premium. Chart-wise, the two-month rally from $38 to $76.50 has put in a structure that rarely collapses on a single 1.78% candle, and the $66–$67 area has absorbed multiple tests. Historical behavior further argues for caution: every Iran-related headline in 2026 has seen the initial risk-off move compress within 72 hours absent a second escalation. The bear case likely needs a visible Iranian retaliation or a concrete operational escalation from Washington—without either, the risk premium may bleed away rather than build.
