On July 29, 2026, Polymarket unveiled the Polymarket Institute, a company-funded research body that will award doctoral fellowships to study how prediction markets aggregate information and shape forecasting. The announcement came just five days after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory warning designated contract markets—including Kalshi and Polymarket’s US entity—to stop bundling event contracts into blanket self-certification filings, a practice the agency said made it impossible to audit individual contract compliance.
The institute will operate as a branch of Polymarket, not as a standalone nonprofit. Polymarket will fully fund the initiative, though it declined to disclose the total investment. Kai Brusch, Polymarket’s head of data, will serve as managing director, and Brian Jabarian, an assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University, will serve as scientific director without personal compensation. The first cohort of 12 doctoral fellows will each receive a one-time $10,000 grant. Applications open August 18. Fellows will study information aggregation, risk management, and intersections with AI, policy, and cryptocurrency. The program uses a university gift model, meaning Polymarket has no editorial influence over results. Researchers must sign agreements barring them from trading on prediction platforms and retain unconditional publishing rights.
The institute’s timing is closely tied to regulatory dynamics. Polymarket is also re-entering the US market through its $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, completed in July 2025. Meanwhile, rival Kalshi has seized roughly 75% of prediction-market trading volume, according to data from The Block, a lead built largely on the ability to list large numbers of event contracts rapidly under the previous self-certification regime. The CFTC’s new guidance directly targets that speed advantage, potentially raising compliance costs and slowing the introduction of niche markets.
During the 2026 FIFA World Cup, prediction markets saw record trading volumes. Kalshi reported more than $30 billion in volume in June 2026 alone, with crypto contracts hitting a single-day record of $217.98 million on July 15. Polymarket’s research push, combined with its regulated US access via QCEX, positions it as a counterweight. However, the institute’s governance structure—funded and managed internally—raises questions about independence, especially as the sector faces ongoing regulatory debates, including the CLARITY Act in Congress and state-level injunctions.
