Apple Shares Rise as Morgan Stanley Targets $360 on iPhone Duo AI Upgrade Cycle

39 minute ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Apple's foldable iPhone hinges on AI upgrade cycle, not novelty, to sustain AAPL upside.
  • 57% old-iPhone pool offers replacement demand, but margin pressure from pricing may cap near-term gains.
  • Watch Siri AI beta in mid-September as key catalyst for upgrade demand and AAPL sentiment.

Apple shares gained 1.1% on Thursday after the company introduced its first foldable iPhone, the iPhone Duo, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. The launch strengthened Wall Street’s argument that Apple is entering a broader AI-driven hardware upgrade cycle, with analysts issuing a range of price targets and ratings.

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring maintained an Overweight rating and a $360 price target, describing the iPhone Duo as Apple’s most innovative device in years. Woodring said Apple is positioning the iPhone as an intelligent personal hub, with the iPhone Duo and Siri AI central to that strategy. He estimated that 57% of iPhone users are still using devices older than the iPhone 15 Pro, creating a large potential replacement pool. The analyst also highlighted Apple’s first 2nm A20 system-on-chip and the expected role of Siri AI in making the iPhone a centralized intelligence hub.

The iPhone Duo features a 7.6-inch inner display, an A20 Pro chip, and a redesigned Siri powered by Apple Intelligence. The iPhone 18 Pro lineup also includes the A20 Pro chip, upgraded on-device AI processing, and the new Siri AI experience. The event marked the first major product launch under CEO John Ternus, who took over amid pressure for Apple to prove that Apple Intelligence can translate into actual device demand.

Other banks offered differing views. Citi maintained a Buy rating with a $365 price target, calling the iPhone Duo Apple’s biggest new hardware category since the watch and AirPods. Bank of America kept its Buy rating but lowered its target to $370 from $380, saying pricing came in below estimates, which could support unit sales but pressure gross margins as component costs rise. GF Securities maintained a Hold rating, describing the iPhone 18 series as a modest product cycle and pointing to limited hardware upgrades and potential margin pressure. J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee said the event was largely in line with expectations and noted that Siri AI features are scheduled for beta release in mid-September, which could contribute to iPhone revenue growth.

Apple was trading around the high $310s after the launch, leaving Morgan Stanley’s $360 target implying further upside if the new devices drive stronger-than-normal replacement demand. Rosenblatt also raised its Apple target while cautioning that Apple needed stronger innovation to justify its premium valuation. The central question for investors is whether the iPhone Duo can convince the market that Apple innovation is accelerating again and whether AI can finally trigger a meaningful upgrade cycle among its large installed base.

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