Bitcoin traded near $76,800 on Sept. 11 after losing the $78,000 support area, extending a decline from the Sept. 4 local high near $82,280. The largest cryptocurrency has formed a series of lower highs, and a daily close below its 20-day simple moving average at $78,601 would keep short-term control with sellers. Broader moving averages remain supportive, with the 50-day SMA at $70,673 and the 200-day SMA at $70,058.
Macro pressures are amplifying the move. US wholesale prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% year over year, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates. Interest-rate futures put the probability of a rate increase at about 67% and briefly as high as 72% after the producer inflation release. The US 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, while Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel after nearing $110 during the week on Middle East supply concerns. The UK 10-year yield has broken out and is heading toward 6%, adding to global bond-market stress. The Treasury’s $5.2 billion buyback of longer-dated government bonds, against a $6 billion target, did not halt the selloff.
Technically, Bitcoin is testing its 50-week exponential moving average near $77,000. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows warned that a weekly close below this level could push BTC toward $72,000–$74,000. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index fell to 34.25, and the Supertrend indicator turned bearish with resistance at $79,060. Immediate support sits between $76,000 and $76,500, aligning with a visible liquidation cluster on the one-week CoinGlass liquidation heatmap. Long-term moving averages near $70,000 form a deeper support area if the correction expands.
Bulls need to reclaim $78,000 to weaken the bearish setup, with the next major liquidity concentration near $80,000. Trader Daan Crypto Trades said new short positions entered around $78,000 remained profitable and funding rates were starting to turn negative; a recovery above $78,000 could squeeze those shorts and add momentum toward $80,000. Failure to recover would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to another test of $76,000.
On the weekly chart, analysts noted that a close above the top of the channel around $81,500 would be needed to shift momentum back to bulls, with less than three days to accomplish it. The upcoming US consumer inflation report and the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15–16 policy meeting remain the main macro catalysts for crypto investors.
