Tesla shares have rallied from a low of $297 in August to roughly $378–$380 in late September, but the latest technical signals suggest the rebound may be running out of steam. The stock stalled near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, the same zone as the September 3 high, and has completed filling a fair value gap from July. A doji candlestick pattern has emerged, which chart analysts often read as a sign that a pullback toward $350 could follow.
Fundamentally, Tesla is benefiting from rising gasoline and diesel prices, especially in Europe. New data showed European EV registrations surged 52% in August, with Germany leading. The Model Y remains the best-selling EV in Europe, while the cheaper Model 3 ranks third. In the US, KBB reported new EV sales rose 2.5% in August from July, and EIA data indicated more than 25% of vehicles sold in August were electric. Tesla said it delivered over 480,000 vehicles after producing 450,000, up 25% from a year earlier.
At the same time, China remains a challenge. Tesla’s wholesale sales there rose just 3.5% year-over-year and fell 7.92% from July, amid intensifying competition from BYD, Nio and Xpeng, higher costs, and reduced government support. Investors are also watching the Trump-Xi meeting in Washington, where Chinese officials are expected to push for US market access for Chinese automakers, a move a US automaker lobby group has opposed. Ahead of next week’s results, analysts expect Q3 revenue to decline 2.11% to $27 billion, with full-year sales forecast up 12% to $120 billion. The company also plans to unveil the long-delayed Roadster next week, another potential catalyst.
On the commercial vehicle side, Tesla officially started high-volume Semi production this week at its new 1.7 million-square-foot plant in Sparks, Nevada. The facility, located next to the 4680 battery cell lines at Gigafactory Nevada, is designed to eventually produce up to 50,000 Semis per year. CEO Elon Musk announced the milestone in a prerecorded message tied to the plant’s September 24 opening. Tesla first unveiled the Semi in 2017, began limited deliveries in 2022, and now plans to start customer deliveries this week.
A newly formed freight coalition called ZET SCALE has selected Tesla to lead a 2,500-truck electric Class 8 order, a deal that would roughly double the number of battery-electric heavy trucks on US roads. Other suppliers include PACCAR’s Kenworth brand, RIDE and Volvo Group. Deliveries will roll out over several years to hubs in Los Angeles, Houston, Chicago, Atlanta and the New York area. That follows earlier orders of 500 Semis from Einride in August and 370 from WattEV in May. Separately, PepsiCo and Microsoft are part of a 2,500-truck order placed through Catalyst Mobility.
Overseas competition is building. At the IAA Transportation show in Europe, BYD unveiled the ETT 44, a 44-tonne electric tractor with up to 1,000 horsepower and about 372 miles of range. Tesla’s Semi offers up to 500 miles of range for the long-range version and 325 miles for the standard version, but Europe will initially receive only the standard-range model. Financially, Tesla’s automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was 16.3% last quarter, while energy storage margins dropped to 20.4% from 39.5% a year earlier. The stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TipRanks, with an average price target of $388.85, implying about 3% upside from current levels.
