New research from the National Cryptocurrency Association (NCA) and The Harris Poll reveals that more than 33 million U.S. adults who do not currently own cryptocurrency plan to buy it in 2026. The survey, conducted June 24–July 1, 2026, among 2,014 non-holders, carries a Bayesian credible interval of ±2.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Notably, the prospective buyers look different from today's holder base: median age 42 versus 38, women 43% versus 34%, people of color 55% versus 48%, and households earning under $75,000 42% versus 23%. The NCA's separate 2026 State of Crypto Holders Report estimates 67 million U.S. adults now own crypto, up 12 million in a year.
Trust in familiar institutions emerges as a critical conversion factor. Only 12% of non-holders said the traditional financial system does not work for people like them, while 36% said they would be more likely to buy crypto if offered through a trusted institution such as a bank, retirement account, or payment app. Among non-holders who use a financial adviser, 76% said an adviser recommendation would make them more likely to learn about crypto and 66% more likely to buy. Almost half (48%) cite lack of understanding as a main reason for not owning crypto, and 59% say the technology is difficult to understand. Respondents indicated that easier-to-understand information (26%), better scam protection (25%), availability through trusted institutions (23%), and seeing peers succeed (21%) would increase their comfort.
Motivations extend beyond speculation: portfolio diversification leads at 41%, followed by purchasing goods and services (26%), getting paid faster (24%), 24/7 access to money (24%), and fear of falling behind financially (27%). Existing holders already report practical use—41% send money to friends or family and 40% purchase goods and services, with the share reporting no practical use falling from 20% in 2025 to 13% this year. However, the report cautions that purchase intention is not a completed transaction; conditions can shift with prices, regulations, or household finances.
Separately, Black Friday data underscores the disconnect between retail spending and crypto prices. Adobe Analytics reported a record $11.8 billion in U.S. online spending on Black Friday 2025, up 9.1% from $10.8 billion in 2024. Bitcoin traded near $91,000 on Black Friday 2025 after falling about 17% from its early November peak above $110,000. Historical data from 2023–2025 shows no direct correlation: Bitcoin was about $37,720 on Black Friday 2023, $97,000 in 2024, and $91,000 in 2025, with moves driven by macro catalysts such as spot ETF anticipation, the presidential election, and Federal Reserve policy rather than retail volumes. Vivek Pandya, Lead Analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, noted that crossing the $10 billion threshold in 2024 represented a major e-commerce milestone, but it is a consumer behavior trend with its own drivers.
Crypto payments, however, are gaining ground. BitPay reported 12% growth in payment volume in 2025, with an average transaction value of about $800 and stablecoins accounting for 40% of volume. The global crypto payment gateway market reached an estimated $2 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $4.74 billion by 2030 at an 18.7% CAGR. Consumer attitudes are shifting: a PayPal survey found 17% of Americans preferred receiving cryptocurrency over gift cards, and Visa's holiday survey reported 45% of Gen Z consumers would welcome crypto as a holiday present. These adoption metrics strengthen the utility case for stablecoins and major cryptocurrencies, even though price movements remain tied to monetary policy, regulation, and institutional flows rather than Black Friday receipts.
