Kalshi’s newly launched 15-minute gold prediction markets have overtaken Ether-linked contracts in both trading activity and fee generation, according to data from Predict Charts and InGame. In September, gold contracts recorded 542 million trades, roughly 70% more than Ether’s 318 million contracts during the same month.
The short-duration product lets traders bet on whether gold will rise or fall during a 15-minute window. Kalshi introduced it in August, settling each market using pricing data from Pyth. Estimated fees from gold trading reached $5 million in September, nearly double Ether’s $2.6 million. Bitcoin remained the platform’s largest market by a wide margin, generating an estimated $60.4 million in fees, more than 12 times the gold total.
Short-duration markets are now a major fee driver outside sports betting. Over the seven days through October 5, 15-minute crypto, commodity and financial markets produced $20.4 million in fees, representing about 80% of Kalshi’s total non-sports fees for that week, despite accounting for only 13% of total trading volume. Daily fees from these contracts topped $3 million on four separate days during the week.
The rapid growth reflects broader momentum in commodities. Kalshi said on September 8 that its commodity markets reached $400 million in trading volume within seven months, about twice as fast as crypto markets reached the same level. Commodity markets now include gold, silver, oil, copper and agricultural products, and Kalshi has filed plans for perpetual contracts tied to gold, silver and platinum. The company was also reported to be in talks to raise about $1 billion in new funding at a valuation near $40 billion, up from $22 billion earlier in 2026.
Non-sports markets made up more than a quarter of Kalshi’s estimated fee revenue in September. For 2026 through October 6, non-sports markets accounted for 19.2% of fees, compared with 11% in 2025. The data suggests prediction-market demand can move quickly toward whichever underlying asset offers the most compelling short-term trading setup.
