SpaceX (SPCX) stock traded at $163.42 on Monday, up 1%, after the company announced a nationwide low-band spectrum purchase that puts Starlink in direct competition with major U.S. wireless carriers. AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon fell on Friday following the announcement, though all three bounced on Monday. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated a bullish view, calling the stock “Cheap and Getting Cheaper” and setting a $300 price target, nearly double the current price.
SpaceX is reportedly seeking $40 billion in financing to buy Nvidia chips, a move that has sparked debate over leverage. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives argued the company can support the debt, pointing to contracted AI backlog and Starlink cash generation. SpaceX reported a 92% jump in second-quarter sales, with Starlink growing 32% and the xAI business growing 213%, though the company posted a net loss of $541 million.
The stock trades at 68 times trailing 12-month sales, down from about 100 times at its June IPO. Jonas notes that on 2028 expected profit, the growth-adjusted valuation looks more attractive. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has an even higher target of $800, while Evercore ISI has flagged a calendar of 2027 catalysts.
A key risk is the lock-up schedule. Pre-IPO holders’ shares are released in nine steps, with five already passed and the largest tranche—about 28% of restricted shares, worth roughly 1.3 billion shares—set to become transferable after the second full trading day following SpaceX’s third-quarter results. The Q3 earnings date has not been confirmed, making the announcement itself a supply event. The final standard lock-up expires on day 180, around 8 December, while Elon Musk’s shares remain restricted until immediately after the close of trading on the 366th day after the pricing date, with no early release provisions.
So far, the market has absorbed earlier releases: SPCX gained 6% on 6 August when roughly 911.5 million shares became transferable. However, the upcoming 28% tranche is the first major release scheduled to land directly in an earnings reaction, a different test for the stock.
