Mizuho has lowered its price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) to $43 from $45, keeping an Underperform rating, and warned that AI personal assistant engines pose a “marked risk” to the USDC issuer’s medium-term revenue. Circle shares closed down 7% at $79.84 on Monday, meaning the new target implies about 46% downside.
Analysts modeled how AI assistants such as Muse advise cash holdings. They found the agents often recommend higher-yielding, FDIC-insured fiat alternatives — including SoFi savings accounts — over holding USDC directly. When users insist on crypto exposure, the AI tools “seem to prefer other platforms” rather than Circle’s ecosystem, according to Mizuho.
The brokerage estimates broader AI adoption could reduce USDC’s market cap by $4 billion to $9 billion and cut Circle’s reserve revenue by 10% to 20% over the medium term. In a faster adoption scenario, roughly $7 billion could move into fiat products and another $2 billion into higher-yielding stablecoins, shrinking USDC market cap by up to $9 billion and lowering reserve revenue by 18%.
Mizuho also cut its 2027 average USDC circulation forecast to $101 billion from $108 billion, lowered projected reserve revenue to $4.1 billion from $4.3 billion, and reduced adjusted EBITDA estimates to $603 million from $635 million. Circle said reserve income represented 95.2% of second-quarter revenue, while 17% of USDC was held on Circle’s platform, 30% on Coinbase, and 53% elsewhere.
Circle reported $1.4 billion in first-half 2026 revenue and said USDC settled more than $36 trillion in on-chain transaction volume. USDC accounted for 77% of global stablecoin transaction volume by June, up from 60% a year earlier. The report lands ahead of Circle’s November 4 earnings release; Cathie Wood’s ARK bought 65,615 Circle shares on October 26 despite the decline.
