Polymarket has expanded its US prediction-market lineup by launching five-minute price direction contracts for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP. Announced on October 27, 2026, the new markets allow eligible US users to trade whether each crypto asset will finish higher or lower over a five-minute interval.
Each contract has two outcomes, Up and Down. Winning positions settle at $1 per contract, while losing positions expire without a payout. Instead of using a single instantaneous price, settlement is determined by averaging index observations taken in the last 60 seconds before closing. CF Benchmarks supplies the reference pricing: the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index for BTC and corresponding dollar-based real-time indices for ETH, SOL and XRP. A closing price equal to the starting price is treated as an Up result.
Taker fees are charged separately from the bid-ask spread. With 12 five-minute intervals per hour, each asset can have up to 288 settlement windows per day. That frequency expands trading opportunities but makes execution costs, spreads and liquidity particularly important. The US platform operates separately from Polymarket's international service, which has used Chainlink-based time-weighted average prices for short-duration contracts following concerns about settlement manipulation.
The launch follows Polymarket US adding 15-minute, hourly and daily markets for Ethereum, Solana and XRP on October 15, 2026, and the earlier introduction of five-minute Bitcoin markets internationally in February 2026. Polymarket's US operation runs through QCX LLC and is overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company re-entered the US market after acquiring QCX in a July 2025 transaction, following a 2022 CFTC order in which Polymarket paid a $1.4 million civil penalty for operating an unregistered derivatives trading facility.
The new contracts put Polymarket in more direct competition with Kalshi's short-term crypto markets, including 15-minute products. Polymarket has not disclosed initial trading volume, active user figures or revenue projections, and the commercial significance will depend on whether the new contracts attract sustained liquidity and participation.
